Beware the prognosticator

Picture credit: nikilok Picture credit: nikilok

I have an engraved plaque on my desk which warns the reader: “Those who claim to predict the future are all lying, even if by chance they are later proved right.”

A useful caution for any strategic adviser, which we should all heed, especially at this time of year, when all and sundry feel compelled to share their predictions for the year to come. That is not to say that we should not prepare for contingent situations, just that we should not get carried away by an enticing guess.

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