I am getting mixed messages from connections in the IT industry; within the space of an hour yesterday I was told that things are “steaming ahead” by one person, while another observed “things are very, very tight, nobody is spending.”
This is hardly a scientific process but my gut feel and general observation of the UK IT user sector over the past few months give me a strong sense of deja vu: we are clearly in the same sort of downturn that we saw begin in the second quarter of 2001.
Seven years ago everyone started sitting on their hands as far as IT investment was concerned, with one notable exception – the Government sector. It seemed to me at the time that the only people spending money on IT were government bodies (central and local) to fulfil their e-government initiative obligations. That sectore kept IT ticking over in the UK for a couple of years until general confidence improved.
But now in the Summer of 2008, with the credit crunch, soaring energy costs and the spectre of high inflation rates, the IT sector seems to be trending down, without any saviour initiative on the horizon. I can’t see any compelling reasons for major technology investments, on a wholesale basis.
So it looks like we must buckle down until after the next General Election in 2010 and get ready for a prolonged period of retrenchment and rationalisation. By saying this I am not a doom-monger, or some sort of high-tech Cassandra, I am merely passing a considered opinion.
We are back to the future and the IT mantra will be: Do more with less.
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