Premature evaluation

picture credit: xiaming

picture credit: xiaming

Many organizations suffer from undiagnosed premature evaluation. Decisions are made without adequate information, leading to unexpected costs and disappointment.

We could mitigate the risk of premature evaluation by adding a new sign-off requirement to the business case for all new initiatives: a qualifying level of confidence in the quality of information supporting the proposal.

Of course, sponsors of significant changes should always provide coherent and concise explanations of how the business case rationale has been derived – so that those who approve an initiative can  have greater  confidence in the quality of their investment evaluation.

But in my experience, the quality of information [rationale] supporting a business case is often quite weak and insufficient to provide stakeholders with a proper justification for approval.

Nevertheless, these business cases frequently get passed – despite, or more likely because of, their inadequacies.

If we want to improve our strategic performance, we should resist the pressure to succomb to premature evaluation.

Here is how we can reduce the risk of premature evaluation by adopting a simple [but effective] measure: ask each person with responsibility for approving a business case to certify their personal level of confidence in the quality of information provided – on a scale of 0 to 10.

This simple process should make each individual consider business cases in a new light and improve the quality of our decision making.


Colin can help organizations and individuals to improve their evaluation processes, please use the contact form for more details:
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  • Fraser

    or use “real option” theory!

    • http://www.colin-beveridge.com colinb

      Fraser – real options is a good approach for strategy; but a much harder ‘sell’ for quick adoption by those who may be sceptical of ‘methods.’ That’s why I suggested a very simple, almost quick and dirty, improvement. My motivation, however, is to get more organizations adopting more robust and rigorous planning processes. A simple zero to ten scale is often a great ice-breaker for encouraging better thinking about problems.

  • http://www.colin-beveridge.com ColinB

    Postscript:

    Premature evaluation often leads to disappointment – except in those situations where incomplete information may be overcome by the good fortune of serendipity to produce a [possibly] undeserved dividend.

  • Jean Roberts

    An interesting and pragmatic way of getting a ‘gut feel’ on a project / proposal’s validity; sadly will not get the NHS around the problem of business cases being not (always) being widely available!
    Would be fun to do your evaluation test against some of the previous formal govt Gateway Reviews – see if the same ultimate course of action ensues?